000 AXNT20 KNHC 310900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1007 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N50W, is along a tropical wave, moving W at around 5 kt. This area is producing a large area of scattered moderate and isolates strong convection from 08N to 18N between 47W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are peaking near 10 ft north of the low. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 19W/20W, south of 19N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 20N and E of 24W. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional information. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Limited convection is near the wave. A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 92W, south of 21N, across SE Mexico, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf and across southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N32W to a 1007 mb low pres near 15N50W to 08N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special features section above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 26W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches from the Florida panhandle to near 22N80W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of this trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trades across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Locally strong east winds may pulse offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on an area of low pressure near 15N50W with a chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, A 1018 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda maintains tranquil weather conditions across the western tropical Atlantic, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevailing W of 55W. Gentle to locally fresh easterly trades are noted offshore northern Hispaniola and similar S-SW winds offshore NE Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough and E of 25W to the African coast, where seas of 7-10 ft. Farther north, fresh to strong NE winds are noted over the waters offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure several hundred miles E of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move W and WNW and reach the far SE forecast zones late Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the weekend. $$ AL