000 AXNT20 KNHC 302130 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated 1007 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N49W, is along a tropical wave near 49W, moving west at around 5 kt. This area is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 09N to 18N between 43W and 55W. Current associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W, from 06N to 19N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 20N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wed. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional information. A tropical wave that was previously analyzed in the central Caribbean Sea along 74W has been re-analyzed to along 81W, near western Cuba from 22N southward to across western Panama, moving west at around 20 kt. Earlier morning upper-air soundings from Jamaica, San Andres Island, Colombia, and the Cayman Islands all indicated SE winds at 15 to 20 kt aloft, and visible satellite imagery this afternoon contributed to the placement of the tropical wave. In-house wave diagnostic tools also support this placement along 81W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 74W and 83W, enhanced by a upper-level low and mid-level troughing. A tropical wave is along 90W, across the western Yucatan Peninsula southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 15 kt. Convection is primarily over land, with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N30W to 15N47W to 1007 mb elongated low pressure near 15N49W to 09N56W. In addition to the convection described above and associated with the two Atlantic tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 20W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A relaxed pressure gradient is leading to favorable marine conditions across the majority of the Gulf. A surface trough in the NE Gulf is supporting an area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 22N to 30N, between 83W and 91W. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds are light to gentle with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the convection is the western Caribbean Sea. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 3-6 ft. Winds are moderate in the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas, and gentle in the SW Caribbean with mainly 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, the ridge north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Some locally strong east winds may pulse offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 5 days. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. In the western Atlantic, 1018 mb surface high pressure is analyzed near 28N68W. Winds are rotating anticyclonically around this feature with gentle to moderate speeds and 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas, except locally strong through Canary Islands passages. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, between the coast of Africa and 25W, where seas are 8-10 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the elongated area of low pressure several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles described in the Special Features section may reach the far SE forecast zones late Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky