000 AXNT20 KNHC 282307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic Gale Warning: An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 45W, from 23N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N45W. Scattered showers are noted from 13N-18N between 40W-50W. Recent satellite- derived wind data indicate that the system is producing winds to near gale force, but the circulation remains elongated with an ill-defined center. Although environmental conditions ahead of the system do not appear conducive for significant development, a tropical depression, at the very least, is likely to form later this week while moving slowly toward the west and then west- northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. A Gale Warning is in effect for this system due to frequent gusts expected to reach gale force. The chance of tropical cyclone formation of the system is MEDIUM (40%) through 48 hours, and HIGH (70%) through five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. For additional marine information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 59W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 kt. There is no significant convection in the vicinity of the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 77W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted SE of Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to the Special Feature wave/low. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 15N and E of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is evident in the NW Gulf N of 22N and W of 88W. A surface trough is analyzed within this activity from 27N92W to 25N95W. To the east, scattered to numerous moderate convection has developed over the Florida Peninsula and western half of Cuba due to daytime heating. Some of this activity is moving offshore across the SE Gulf waters S of 27N and E of 87W. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin. SCatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin, with seas of 2-4 ft in the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near convection. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the western Gulf mainly N of 22N and W of 90W. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle trades over the western Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft range in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the ridge N of the Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning for a tropical wave/low with a MEDIUM chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development over the next five days. Refer to the section above for details on the other tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted across the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba. This activity is approaching the adjacent waters mainly W of 78W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N47W to 27N51W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 25N and west of 55W. 4-6 ft seas persist elsewhere, becoming locally 7 ft in the far eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola tonight, and again Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. $$ ERA