000 AXNT20 KNHC 281751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic: An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 44W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 5-10 knots. 1009 mb low pressure is along the axis at 14.5N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N between 44W and 48W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force NE winds north of the low pressure from 14N to 18N between 42W and 47W. Fresh NE winds are from 13N to 22N between 41W and 48W. Seas are 8-11 ft in these areas, with the analysis supported by this morning's satellite altimeter passes. The circulation remains elongated with an ill-defined center. Although environmental conditions ahead of the system do not appear conducive for significant development, a tropical depression, at the very least, is likely to form later this week while moving slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. The chance of tropical cyclone formation is MEDIUM (40%) through 48 hours and HIGH (70%) through five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. For additional marine information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 44W, from 22N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. For more information about this tropical wave, please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 58W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant convection in the vicinity of the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 77W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted SE of Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Dakar, Senegal near 15N17W to 12N21W to 1009 mb low pressure near 14.5N44W to 11N52W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 20W and 31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 11N east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is evident in the NW Gulf from 21N to 27N between 91W and 96W. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds are over the western Gulf with gentle SSE winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near convection. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the west-central Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle trades over the western Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft range in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin through Tue. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a tropical wave with a MEDIUM chance of development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development over the next five days. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the north coast of Cuba north to the Bahamas near 24N between 76W and 78W. Scattered showers are noted near a surface trough in the far NW discussion waters off the coast of NE Florida. Outside of the tropical wave described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 25N and west of 55W. 4-6 ft seas persist elsewhere, becoming locally 7 ft in the far eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola the next couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. $$ Mahoney