000 AXNT20 KNHC 280901 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 42W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Low pressure has developed along the wave near 14N42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 40W and 48W. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development of the system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves west- northwestward at around 10 kt toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 56W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant deep convection in the vicinity of the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 76W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. There is limited convection near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W to 15N21W to low pres near 14N42W to 11N52W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 11W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are over the western Gulf with gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the western Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin through Tue. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of the week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N67W to 26N71W. High pressure prevails over the remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Gentle winds are noted north of 26N and west of 27W, with moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere north of 20N. Seas of 1-3 ft are found west of 72W, with 3-6 ft seas covering much of the remainder of the waters north of 20N. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, a 1009 mb low pressure center has developed along a tropical wave near 14N42W. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of this low near 32N41W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds, within 330 nm N of the low. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted within this area of fresh to strong winds. Outside of this area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail south of 20N. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola the next couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. $$ AL