000 AXNT20 KNHC 270900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 33W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 31W and 40W. Some gradual development of the system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next five days. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 52W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant deep convection in the vicinity of this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 75W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm west of the wave axis south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N30W to 11N52W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 08W and 17W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 40W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Light winds are noted over the NE Gulf, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range, reaching near 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds across the western Caribbean through Tue. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development of a trough, currently located over the eastern Caribbean, during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally westward at around 10 kt across the central and NW Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of weak troughs prevail west of 50W. The first trough extends from 31N72W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A second trough extends from 31N64W to 25N66W. Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A third trough extends from 31N52W to 22N55W. Isolated moderate convection is near the trough axis north of 28N. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the troughs. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the discussion area. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 72W, 6-8 ft from 08N to 22N between 18W and 30W, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the region over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. $$ AL