000 AXNT20 KNHC 270547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: the precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close to the monsoon trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave. It is possible that the environmental conditions may support some gradual development of this system during the early and middle parts of next week, while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward, through the eastern and central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave left a surface trough, that is along 67W from 20N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in the western sections of Haiti. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 64W and the Windward Passage. It is possible that the environmental conditions may become more conducive for slow development of the trough, during the early or middle part of next week, while the trough moves generally westward 10 to 15 mph, through the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 16N16W, to 15N20W 13N30W 11N40W 10N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough, between the tropical waves. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong also is from 04N to 12N from 20W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N82W, about 240 nm to the NW of Jamaica, and about 160 nm to the SE of NW Cuba. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Mexico near 20N101W. Precipitation: earlier numerous strong was covering the westernmost sections of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, at 27/0000 UTC. The cloud top temperatures have been warming, and the precipitation is comparatively weaker...widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Nicaragua to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico between 88W and 97W. Isolated moderate is from 25N southward from 90W eastward. A tropical wave is moving through Mexico, along 97W/98 from 20N southward, about 10 knots. A frontal boundary covers the U.S.A. coastal plains from southern Georgia, to east Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds, and slower speeds, cover the area. The sea heights are 2 feet or less. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N82W, about 240 nm to the NW of Jamaica, and about 160 nm to the SE of NW Cuba. Precipitation: earlier numerous strong was covering the westernmost sections of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, at 27/0000 UTC. The cloud top temperatures have been warming, and the precipitation is comparatively weaker...widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Nicaragua to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico between 88W and 97W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from the Windward Passage westward. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern half of the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and slower speeds, cover the rest of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, and they range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the western half. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W, from Colombia to Panama, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 14N southward from 75W westward. Central Atlantic Ocean high pressure will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate winds in the western Caribbean Sea through Tue. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development of a trough, currently located in the eastern Caribbean Sea, during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally westward at around 10 kt across the central and NW Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 34W westward. The upper level cyclonic wind flow that is in the eastern half of this space is related to a trough. The upper level cyclonic wind flow that is in the western half of the area is related to a cyclonic circulation center. Three separate surface troughs are in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 34W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 34W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 200 nm to 400 nm on either side of the line 31N13W 23N24W 22N36W 26N52W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 390 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 07N southward between 30W and 40W, and from 18N to 20N between 32W and 36W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area that is from 50W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 50W westward. High pressure will build across the region during the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail over the area through the weekend, and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. $$ mt/ar