783 AXNT20 KNHC 261803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 24W and 29W. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system through early next week while it moves across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next five days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 knots. Isolated thunderstorms are seen from 11N to 13N between 47W and 51W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the southeast Bahamas at 22N southward across Hispaniola into northwestern Venezuela and central Colombia, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the Colombia-Venezuela border and the ABC Islands. Another tropical wave is at the western Bay of Campeche from 21N southward across southern Mexico into the East Pacific, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, passing over the southern Cabo Verde Islands at 15N24W through 10N37W to 12N51W. Aside from convection near the tropical wave mentioned earlier, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near the trough from 07N to 12N between 36W and 39W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and south of the trough from 10N to 19N between the African coast and 21W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaches west-southwestward from a 1014 mb low over southern Louisiana across the northwest corner of the Gulf to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident up to 90 nm southeast and 20 nm northwest of the front. A surface trough across central Florida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the west coast of central and southern Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. A modest surface ridge reaches westward from southern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present at the northeastern, east-central, central and west- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through the forecast period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and benign seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and west of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and nights through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakened ridge of high pressure to the north is maintaining easterly trades across the entire Caribbean. A surface trough is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near and south of Puerto Rico. Convergent trades are triggering similar conditions near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends northeastward from central Florida to beyond 31N at 77W. Another surface trough is seen east of the Bahamas near 28N73W. These features are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms the central Bahamas northward between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. A third surface trough near 21N64W is producing isolated thunderstorms from 21N to 24N between 62W and 67W. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent flow aloft to cause scattered moderate convection from 22N to 26N between 34W and 44W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge associated with a 1026 mb Azores High is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 25N between 46W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas exist from 13N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident further east, north of 16N between the African coast and 46W/35W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in southerly swell are from the Equator to 13N between 22W and 40W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the region over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. $$ Chan