000 AXNT20 KNHC 252054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands along 20W south of 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-15N east of 26W. This tropical wave is expected to move westward at about 15 kt during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when it moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea early next week. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W south of 24N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W south of 23N to across Puerto Rico and central Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. The tropical wave left behind a surface trough extending from 15N60W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico, as well as along and offshore the coast of eastern Venezuela. This tropical wave is expected to move westward at about 15 kt during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when it moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea early next week. A tropical wave extending along 92W from the SW Gulf of Mexico southward to across the border of Guatemala and Mexico and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring along the coast and inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W southwestward to across the Cabo Verde Islands to 14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N55W. In addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 30W and 37W. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends east from Costa Rica near 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N76W to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 13N in the SW Caribbean Sea. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped just inland from the upper Texas coast through northern Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted northwest of a line from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 26N92W to 25N97W. Aside from locally higher winds/seas near thunderstorms, winds are generally gentle or weaker across the entire Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain over the area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the west of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1010 mb Colombian Low near 10N76W is forcing only gentle to moderate E to SE trades, locally fresh near the Guajira Peninsula as well as near the A-B-C Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean and 2 to 3 ft in the western and eastern Caribbean. Aside from the convection noted above due to the eastern Caribbean tropical wave/surface trough and the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 76W and 85W. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the eastern Caribbean tonight, and continue moving across the basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores High is located fairly far north of the area near 41N39W with ridging extending southwestward to 30N67W. The moderate pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing generally gentle to moderate NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 35W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft west of 70W, and 4 to 6 ft between 35W and 70W. Moderate to fresh trades are found north of the monsoon trough and east of 35W, locally strong along and offshore of Morrocco and Western Sahara through the Canary Islands. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Equatorward of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, S to SW winds reach up to fresh to strong levels between 14W and 35W, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A surface trough along 32N69W to 25N73W has moderate to fresh S winds just east of the trough axis, along with scattered moderate convection from 25N to 30N between 70W and 75W. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from 30N71W to 26N73W will continue to slowly move westward through Fri while it weakens. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail in the vicinity of the trough. Weak high pressure will build in the wake of the trough through the next few days. The associated gradient should allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the area through the weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW forecast waters during the weekend as a front stalls and weakens across northern Florida and adjacent waters. Winds and seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Lewitsky