000 AXNT20 KNHC 251742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19N south of 20N moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-14N east of 24W. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system through early next week while it moves quickly westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at a faster rate of speed. A central Atlantic tropical wave is centered at 43W south of 20N moving westward around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated westward to along 66W south of 23N based upon the Saint Maarten, San Juan, and Santo Domingo 700 mb rawindsonde observations along with GFS/ECMWF trough diagnostics. The tropical wave has left behind a surface trough extending from 11N61W to 15N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 16N between 59W- 65W. This system is expected to move westward at about 15 kt during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when it moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea early next week. A tropical wave extending along 91W from the SW Gulf of Mexico to southward over Central America is moving westward around 10 kt. There is no significant deep convection associated with this system. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W southwestward to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 10N54W. In addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 12N between 28W-40W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough extends eastward from Costa Rica to a 1010 mb low at 10N76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 12N in the SW Caribbean Sea. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped just inland from the upper Texas coast through northern Florida. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted northwest of a line from 30N85W to 25N97W. Aside from locally higher winds/seas near thunderstorms, winds are generally gentle or weaker across the entire Gulf with 1-3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain over the area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1010 mb Colombian Low near 10N76W is forcing only gentle to moderate E to SE trades. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean and 2-3 ft in the western and eastern Caribbean. Aside from the convection noted above due to the eastern Caribbean tropical wave/surface trough and the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough, isolated moderate convection is also noted from 15N-21W between 79W-87W. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the eastern Caribbean today, and continue moving across the basin through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores High is located fairly far north day near 41N40W with ridging extending southwestward to 25N72W. The moderate pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing generally gentle to fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft east of 60W and 2-4 ft west of 60W. Equatorward of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, S to SW winds reach up to fresh conditions. Seas are 5-8 ft. A surface trough along 25N73W to beyond 31N70W has moderate to fresh S winds just east of the trough axis along with scattered moderate convection from 25N-31N between 69W-75W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will continue to slowly move westward through Fri while it weakens. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be mainly east of the trough. Weak high pressure will build in the wake of the trough through the next few days. The associated gradient should allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the area through the weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW forecast waters during the weekend as a front stalls across north-central Florida and extends northeastward over those waters. Winds and seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Landsea