000 AXNT20 KNHC 250359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa extending along 17W, from 05N to 21N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N, between 13W and 24W. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system. The current outlook assigns a 0% probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Strong convection is limited due to a dry airmass, however isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed from 12N to 16N, between 38W and 46W. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 59W, from 03N to 20N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed from 08N to 15N, between 54W and 61W. Environmental conditions could become more conductive for slow development after the wave enters the Caribbean. The current outlook assigns a 0% probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance over the next 5 days. A tropical wave extends along the Yucatan Peninsula, moving W at 5 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are impacting the eastern Bay of Campeche due to this approaching wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. Outside of tropical wave activity, scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N, between 26W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed along the northern Gulf waters due to a stationary boundary along the coast. Similar convection is observed within 180 nm of the west coast of Florida due to a surface trough. Isolated showers are also observed throughout the central portion of the basin due to an abundance of tropical moisture. Outside of thunderstorm activity, marine conditions are quite favorable across the Gulf. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An abundance of tropical moisture across the western and central Caribbean is supporting widely isolated thunderstorms across the basin, with convection concentrated over Cuba, Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms is approaching the Windward Islands. The wave will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea late this week and into early next week, with potential for slow development. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure remains the dominant feature across the subtropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 31N71W to 25N74W, producing scattered moderate convection from 25N to 30N, between 66W and 73W. East of this trough winds are moderate to fresh from the south with 4-6 ft seas. West of the trough, winds are gentle with 2-4 ft seas. Moderate easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the remainder of the western Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N41W to 30N51W. A recent scatterometer pass found moderate NE winds behind the front and gentle winds ahead of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 25N. Winds increase to moderate easterlies south of 25N, with 4-6 ft seas. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern Atlantic is supporting Fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft seas. Fresh SW winds are observed on scatterometer data in the eastern Atlantic south of the monsoon trough, between the equator and 10N. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will move westward toward the Bahamas through Thu accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak high pressure will build in the wake of the trough through the next few days. The associated gradient should allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the area through the weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW forecast waters during the weekend as a front stalls across north-central Florida and extends northeastward over those waters. $$ Flynn