000 AXNT20 KNHC 240358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W, from 03N to 20N, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 14N to 17N, between 35W and 40W. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the circulation is no longer closed at the surface and the low-pressure center has been removed from the analysis. Tropical cyclone development probability has also diminished to 0% over the next 5 days. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 57W, from 03N to 20N, moving west at 5 knots. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85W, south of 20N, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 16N to 20N between 78W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N, between 20W and 25W. Similar convection is also observed from 07N to 09N, between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary boundary is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the NE Gulf. Mid-level diffluent flow is supporting scattered showers across coastal waters of west- central Florida. A surface trough over the western Yucatan Peninsula is causing scattered moderate convection in the Bay of Campeche. Outside of thunderstorm activity, a relaxed pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain over the area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant tropical moisture is supporting isolated moderate convection throughout the basin. Thunderstorms are concentrated in the NW Caribbean due a tropical wave. Winds are generally gentle to moderate from the east with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores High is the main feature across the Atlantic subtropical waters. The western Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas. A surface trough extends along 68W, from 19N to 29N. Recent scatterometer data reveals a significant wind shift across this feature, with stronger, more southerly winds to the east. In the central Atlantic, moderate E winds dominate with 4-6 ft seas. The pressure gradient is tighter in the eastern Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough located along 68W will move westward toward the Bahamas through late Wed accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough allowing for generally a gentle to moderate E to SE flow beginning on Wed. $$ Flynn