000 AXNT20 KNHC 231755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14.5N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm of the center in the northwestern quadrant, and within 500 nm of the center in the southwestern quadrant. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days. The system will be moving westward to west-northwestward, 10 to 15 mph, through the tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: the precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is between the Windward Passage and the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 14.5N along the 36W/37W tropical wave, to 10N50W, to the coast of Brazil near 08N60W. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough southward, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 47W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows upper level anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary is in Texas and Louisiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation covers the areas from Texas to Mississippi. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak ridge runs from the NE corner of the area to the SW corner of the area. Expect gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet. Relatively weak high pressure will remain in the area through the forecast period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects, during the late afternoons and at night through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The precipitation that is from 13N northward from 74W westward, is on the southern side of the NW Caribbean Sea upper level cyclonic circulation center, that is just to the south of NW Cuba. The pressure gradient remains fairly weak in the basin, with gentle to moderate trade winds throughout the basin. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N from 75W, beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: the precipitation that is close to the monsoon trough also is close to the 84W/85W tropical wave. Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds will continue in the western Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 56W westward. The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in the same area 24 hours ago continues now near 24N64W. A trough continues from 24N64W to a second and separate upper level cyclonic circulation center, that is just to the south of NW Cuba, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 68W/70W from 20N to 28N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 58W and the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between the surface trough and Florida. Some of the precipitation that is to the west of the surface trough is streaming into the area from the areas that are to the north of 30N, with upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and to the south of a U.S.A. coastal plains/coastal waters frontal boundary. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 40W eastward. Two separate cyclonic circulation centers are in this area. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 60W eastward. The Bermuda-Azores High presssure center is the main feature. This is supporting generally gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas. A tighter surface pressure gradient exists between the high pressure, and low pressure in northwestern Africa, in order to support fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and NW Africa. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the area of the fresh to strong NE winds. A surface trough located along 68W from 19N to 29N will move westward toward the Bahamas through late Wed, accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The winds and the seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough, allowing for generally a gentle to moderate E to SE flow beginning on Wed. $$ mt/gr/eb