000 AXNT20 KNHC 221802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 19.6N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 28W and 39W. The environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system, while it moves westward to west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph, through the tropical Atlantic Ocean, during the next several days. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 22N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: the precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 16N to 20N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the tropical wave westward, from 16N northward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 20N16W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 16N29W, to 10N49W. The ITCZ continues is along 09N52W, to 08N59W at the coast of Guyana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 28W and 39W. Disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 40W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary, and numerous strong convective precipitation, are in east Texas. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. Expect gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 90W westward, and from 1 foot to 3 feet from 90W eastward. Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the Gulf through the forecast period, maintaining to gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb shows an inverted trough in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward between 59W and 65W. Other isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the south of Hispaniola, between Puerto Rico and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh wind speeds are in the central two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea, in general. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, on either side of the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 80W eastward, and they range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder of the area. The monsoon trough is along 12N73W, 09N80W in Panama, beyond western Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. A tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward. Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 19N northward between 55W and 70W. A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 21N to 29N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the west of the tropical wave, between the wave and Florida. The GFS model for 500 mb shows an inverted trough in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward between 59W and 65W. Other isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the south of Hispaniola, between Puerto Rico and the Windward Passage. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward from 60W eastward. The wind speeds are gentle within the areas of anticyclonic wind flow. Moderate easterly wind speeds are to the south of the anticyclonic wind flow. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. NE moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. An overnight ASCAT data pass was showing that strong winds were funneling through the Canary Island gaps. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 35W eastward. High pressure ridging extending from Bermuda to northern Florida will change little through tonight allowing for moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N. A weak surface trough will move westward from 65W to 75W today accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The trough will weaken the ridge, allowing for winds to diminish by Wed. Afterwards, relatively weak high pressure will be present over the area through the end of the week. $$ mt