000 AXNT20 KNHC 212321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 27W from 09N-22N, moving west at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N-17N between 26W and 30W. The most recent altimeter data indicate seas of 6-8 ft on the E side of the wave axis. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46/47W from 07N-21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis, and only scattered showers are noted where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis extends from eastern Cuba across eastern Jamaica into western Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce some shower and thunderstorm activity across the central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 19.5N16.5W, then crosses the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W to 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 08N57W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 30W and 44W. Similar convection is seen over the Windward Islands and regional waters. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge has re-established across the Gulf waters, with a 1020 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the region with seas of 4-6 ft over the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Similar convective activity can be found over the northern Gulf waters. For the forecast, a weak ridge will prevail over the Gulf region through the forecast period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to fresh NE winds S of Hispaniola, with an area of fresh to strong easterly winds just W of Cabo Beata. Moderate or weaker winds prevail across much of the remainder of the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba mainly between 78W-83W, including the Gulf of Batabano. Buoy and altimeter data indicate that seas are 4-6 ft across the central Caribbean. Seas of 3-4 ft prevail elsewhere, except 2-3 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Convection has flare-up over the Greater Antilles due to the passage of a tropical wave and local effects as daytime heating and sea breezes convergent. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms persist over the Windward Islands and over the SW Caribbean. An upper-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and far NW Caribbean, is enhancing isolated showers and thunderstorms between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage tonight. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low centered N of the southeast Bahamas near 25N72W is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters from 25N-30N between 63W-74W. Another upper- level low is centered farther east, near 24N57W. A surface trough, reflection of this system, is analyzed along 58W from 23N-31N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the trough axis, particularly from 21N-27N between 53W-60W. High pressure located just NE of the Azores extends a ridge WSW to northern Florida, with a 1022 mb high located just W of Bermuda. Scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters under the influence of the ridge. Moderate NE winds are over the Straits of Florida. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft range W of 55W based on altimeter data and buoy observations. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted between 35W and 55W. In the eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades prevail with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds between the Canary Islands. Seas are 4-7 ft based on altimeter data. Areas of 8 ft seas are just E and S of the Cabo Verde Islands, and also near the coast of Morocco. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from Bermuda to northern Florida will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N through tonight. A weak surface trough will move westward from 65W to 75W on Mon. The trough will weaken the ridge, allowing winds to diminish by mid week. $$ GR