000 AXNT20 KNHC 211026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from 23N southward, through a 1010 mb low over the southeastern Cabo Verde Islands at 16N23W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 22W and 29W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development for the next five days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are found from 04N to 09N between 40W and 44W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from 23N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the Windward Passage and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, passing through the aforementioned 1010 mb low at 16N23W to 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident up to 130 nm north and 230 nm south of the monsoon trough. Similar conditions are also present up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Panama and nearby Caribbean waters south of 11N between 76W-83W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of PTC Four are enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 25N and W of 96W. Moderate seas prevail in this area. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed along 83W from 26N-30N with no significant convection at this time. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are found across the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the southeastern and north- central Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the remnants of the PTC Four will continue to move inland today across NE Mexico and SE Texas. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will dissipate through the day. Weak ridging will prevail over the Gulf through the forecast period, leading to gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Aided by upper-level lows across the west and north-central basin, convergent trades are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles. A 1021 mb Bermuda High is sustaining a NE to E trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found near the Windward Passage and just south of central Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present over the central and eastern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the western Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through this morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Surface ridging with axis along 30N prevails across the basin. The Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 27N between 45W and the Georgia- Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted from 10N to 27N between 45W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. The 1026 mb Azores High is sustaining NNE to NE gentle to moderate trades and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 17N between the African coast and 45W, including near the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical surface ridge extends from Bermuda to northern Florida. The ridge will change little through tonight, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N through the remainder of this weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward Passage through this morning. A weak surface trough will move westward from 65W to 75W on Mon. The trough will weaken the ridge, thus diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds. $$ ERA