334 AXNT20 KNHC 172049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 19W/20W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 11W and 24W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 49W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis south of 10N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolates strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 80W and 90W. This tropical wave is forecast to move across Central America during the next couple of days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 17N17W to 09N29W to 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from 09N36W to 10N46W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 30W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 26N92W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift ESE to the north-central Gulf before dissipating tonight. A stalled front along southern Georgia and Alabama will linger in this area through Thu, supporting scattered showers and tstms in the NE basin through Thu night and moderate SW to W winds through tonight. Otherwise, a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during the next couple of days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves NW over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the SW and west-central gulf Thu through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging building N of the region is supporting generally gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin, except for fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean. The ridge will strengthen modestly behind the exiting tropical wave and fresh to strong trade winds will return to the south-central basin at night tonight through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the discussion waters, except fresh to locally strong north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range north of 20N and west of 50W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere west of 30W. East of 30W, seas of 5-8 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging building across the SW N Atlantic offshore waters is expected to prevail through Mon night. A stalled frontal boundary near the NE Florida waters will linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 26N between Florida and 63W. Moderate SW winds ahead of the front and across the north-central offshore waters will diminish on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are forecast S of 25N Thu through Sun. $$ AL