000 AXNT20 KNHC 170455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0444 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 knots. No deep convection is associated with this feature. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 knots. A few showers are noted within 60 nm west of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 19N and between 81W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W to 08N25W to 10N41W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 15N and E of 25W. A few showers are noted from 03N to 10N and between 31W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, promoting fairly tranquil weather conditions across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh ENE-NE winds are found offshore NW and W Yucatan peninsula, while light to occasionally moderate anticyclonic winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche and W Gulf waters, while 1-3 ft prevail in the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, a 1015 high pressure centered near 28N92W will remain in the north-central Gulf through tonight. A stalled front across the NE Gulf coast states will sink S and settle north of the northern Gulf tonight and linger in this area through Thu. This will increase winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate westerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. Otherwise, a tropical wave currently located over Nicaragua is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section, weakening evening storms over Hispaniola are spilling over the neighboring waters. The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker easterly trade winds across the basin, except for locally fresh to strong trades off N Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in the south- central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, two tropical waves in the western Caribbean are generating numerous thunderstorms across NE portions of Honduras and Nicaragua that extend E and NE to near 80W. This active weather is expected to shift gradually westward with the tropical waves through Wed night. Weak 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 26N70W and yielding generally moderate trade winds across much of the basin. This high will strengthen modestly behind the exiting tropical waves tonight through Fri night to gradually bring a return of fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central basin. A tropical wave accompanied by a very broad surface trough will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu night and the eastern Caribbean Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary off the SE United States coast and divergence aloft sustain scattered showers N of 27N and between 65W and 77W. Farther south, a weak surface trough off Puerto Rico is generating a few shallow showers north of the island. Scattered showers are also seen on satellite imagery off Hispaniola. Similar convection is also occurring from 19N to 22N and between 57W and 61W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores, maintaining tranquil weather conditions. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found W of 55W. Gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted between 22W and 55W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft are present N of 18N and E of 22W, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring off NW Mauritania and SE Western Sahara. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 26N70W and extends a weak ridge through the central Bahamas to central Cuba. A stalled frontal boundary just NW of the area will drift SE to near the NE Florida waters tonight and linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 28N between Florida and 68W. High pressure will reestablish across the SW N Atlantic waters Wed through Fri and lift northward Sat. $$ DELGADO