000 AXNT20 KNHC 161016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W, south of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is directly associated with this feature. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends has its axis near 42W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is directly associated with this wave. An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 75W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kts. The northern portion of the wave has begun to separate from the main wave energy, and has left a surface trough from 27N64W to western Puerto Rico. Earlier showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola have become isolated. Scattered strong convection is inland over Colombia along the wave axis, and also over the Caribbean waters from 11.5N to 14N between 75W and 78W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W, south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 12N to 16N between 78W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N22W to 06.5N50W. There is no ITCZ evident between 50W and South America. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N and E of 19W to the coast of Africa, from 04N to 07N between 23W and 26W, and from 05N to 08N between 31.5W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Thunderstorms that developed earlier in the western Yucatan are isolated across the eastern and southern Bay of Campeche waters. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are found in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, where seas are 3-4 ft. Meanwhile, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are evident elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a 1015 high pressure is centered near 27.5N87.5W and will settle across the E central Gulf tonight through Thu. A front will sink southward toward the Gulf coast and settle north of the northern Gulf Tue night and linger in this area through Thu. This will increase winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate westerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed and then again Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside for the convection in the SW Caribbean Sea discussed in the Tropical Waves section, the remainder of the basin enjoys tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure regime also across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and SE portions of the basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure resides across the W Atlc to the north of Puerto Rico along 27N, and is producing a very modest pressure gradient across the basin. Two tropical waves across the Caribbean, along 75W and 81W, are inducing scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean to the west of 75W this morning. These waves are expected to gradually merge by Wed as the continue moving westward. Expect very active weather with and ahead of these tropical waves today across the SW Caribbean and coastal Nicaragua, then shifting westward across Central America and the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the north of the region behind the tropical waves Tue night through Fri to gradually bring a return of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores. Over the western tropical Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from 31N72W to central Florida with scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms noted within 120 nm SE of the trough axis. Divergence aloft is also sustaining scattered moderate convection N of 27N and between 66W and 73W. A couple of weak surface troughs are located north and northeast of the Leeward Islands, generating narrow lines of moderate convection. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds are prevalent between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds were depicted in overnight scatterometer satellite data N of 18N and E of 25W, with the strongest winds off NW Mauritania, Western Sahara and the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas in this portion of the Atlantic are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening frontal trough extending from 31N73W to central Florida will drift ESE and dissipate today. Another frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Tue night and linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 28N and E of the boundary through midweek. A broad surface trough extending from 27N65W to Puerto Rico is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Active thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist through tonight as the trough drifts westward and weakens. High pressure will reestablish along 27-28N Wed through Fri and lift northward Sat. This will bring a return of moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N. $$ Stripling