000 AXNT20 KNHC 152200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W, from 02N to 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends has its axis near 39W, from 02N to 24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 39W and 42W. An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W S of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kts. There is limited convection in the vicinity of this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W S of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 13N, between 75W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 17N24W to 10N32W to 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 11W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough across central Florida is supporting scattered moderate convection over waters within 120 nm of southern Florida. High pressure is centered near 28N90W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will settle across the E central Gulf tonight through Thu. A front will settle north of the northern Gulf Tue night and linger in this region through Thu. This will increase winds across the northeast and north- central Gulf with moderate southerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters, with gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the southeast Bahamas and is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean and will reach 75W tonight. The tropical wave will continue moving westward across the western basin Tue through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through Fri. This will help produce fresh to strong trades across the south- central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N76W to central Florida. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A second trough is from 26N63W to 20N63W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A third trough is from 31N43W to 24N43W. No significant convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. Mainly light to gentle winds are found north of 20N between 35W and 65W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the North of 20N, seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail south of 20N. For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extends off the Florida coast from 30N75W to 28N80W, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. A frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Tue night and linger across the region through Thu, which will keep active weather persistent through midweek. A broad surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean extending from 21N69W to 11N71W is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough drifts westward. High pressure will reestablish along 25-27N Wed through Fri. $$ AL/AR