000 AXNT20 KNHC 151551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 06N to 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Earlier convection has diminished to scattered weak showers along the northern half and southern tip of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W, from 11N to 24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends through the Mona Passage from 06N70W to 21N66W, moving W at 10-15 kts. Isolated moderate convection is observed behind the wave from 11N to 16N, between 62W and 68W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 77W from 06N to 17N, moving W at 20-25 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 13N, between 75W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 06N56W. Convection along these boundaries is isolated and weak. A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean, just north of Panama. This feature is interacting with a tropical wave to produce numerous moderate with isolated strong convection from 10N to 13N, between 75W and 82W. GULF OF MEXICO... As low pressure over northern Mexico continues to drift farther inland, high pressure in the NE Gulf is becoming the dominate feature. A surface trough across central Florida is supporting scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of Tampa Bay. Another area of moderate convection extends roughly 90 nm from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Winds are moderate from the SE in the western Gulf and gentle elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W in the eastern Gulf and will settle across the E central Gulf Tue night through Fri. A front will settle north of the northern Gulf Tue night into Wed morning. This will increase winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate southerly winds expected Tue night through Thu. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean and tropical waves moving across the basin. Outside of thunderstorms, easterly trade winds are gentle to moderate across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic to the southeast Bahamas and is supporting moderate trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean and will reach 70W later this morning. The tropical wave is expected to continue moving westward across the central Caribbean tonight and across the western basin Tue night through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through Fri. This will help produce fresh to locally strong trades across the south- central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. In the western Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 32N74W. A line of thunderstorms extends ahead of this feature from the northern Bahamas to 31N70W. Winds are gentle to moderate from the SW with 3-5 ft seas. A 1020 mb high centered near 29N47W dominates the pattern in the central Atlantic. Gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas increase to moderate northeasterlies and 4-6 ft seas south of 20-25N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds dominate with strong gap winds between the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a weak frontal boundary extending off the NE Florida coast will linger in this area and weaken by tonight. Active weather will continue ahead of this front from the northwest Bahamas northeastward today. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed into Thu with similar weather. A broad surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean extending from 21N66W to 11N69W is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough drifts westward. High pressure will reestablish along 27-28N Thu through Fri. $$ Flynn