000 AXNT20 KNHC 151002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been added to the 0600 UTC surface map, along 23W, from 06N to 21N, moving W around 10 kt. A 1011 mb surface low remains just N of the Cabo Verde islands, near 18N23.5W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 08.5N between 22W and 25W. This wave is evident in precipitable water animations in global model diagnostics. 2300 UTC ASCAT wind data showed a broad surface trough in this vicinity. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to along 35W, from 11N-24N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the monsoon trough from 06.5N-08.5N between 30W and 35W. Global model diagnostics and satellite derived wind vectors show the wave well W of its previous position. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis oriented NNE-SSW from 24N63.5W to Venezuela near 06.5N69W. The tropical wave is moving W at around 15 kt. A broad surface trough is reflected at the surface and extends from the northern portion of the wave NE to near 28N61W. Only isolated convection is seen near the wave axis. However, numerous thunderstorms continue to the E of the surface trough, from 20.5N to 23N between 56W AND 60.5W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W from 17N southward to inland Colombia near 06N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted W of the wave, from 12.5N extending south and inland over Colombia and the adjacent coastal waters to 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to a 1011 mb low near 18N23.5W to 08N33W to 07.5N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N42W to 08.5N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between 17W and the coast of Africa. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 37W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low continues moving westward and farther inland, centered along the Texas/Mexico border near 28N100W. Scattered moderate convection is still occurring within 45 nm of the coast of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm E of the low over southern Texas and NE Mexico. A 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27.5N87W, spreading weak ridging across the Gulf. Isolated moderated convection dots the waters off the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay to Florida Bay. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail over the far western Gulf, west of 95W, where seas are 3-5 ft. NOAA buoy 42020 near 27.0N 96.7W recently reported that seas to 5 ft. Moderate E winds are west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere, with light winds near the high pressure center. Seas are 1-2 ft E of 90W and 2-3 ft elsewhere W of 90W. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms and fresh winds near the Texas and northern Mexico coasts are expected to diminish later this morning as the aforementioned low pressure moves farther inland. Otherwise, the high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will settle across the E central Gulf Tue night through Fri. A weak cold front sinking across the Florida Big Bend is expected to stall along 28.5N through this evening. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Convection has ended over Hispaniola and Cuba, leaving fair skies across the majority of the W half of the basin. The east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered tstorms over the SW Caribbean, south of 11.5N and west of 76W. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data showed fresh NE to E trade winds over the south-central Caribbean with moderate trades elsewhere, except for gentle north of 17N between 71W-83W. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central, south-central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the weak Atlantic ridge extending from the central Atlantic W-SW to the southeast Bahamas is currently being interrupted by a broad trough associated with the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. The trough and tropical wave will reach 70W this morning, move across the central Caribbean Mon night through Tue afternoon, then across the western basin Tue night through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through Fri to produce fresh to locally strong trades across the south- central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends from 1011 low pres near 31N75W to the coast of Florida near 29.5N81W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N74W to central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted from from the NW Bahamas northeastward to along 31N between 65W-73W. Moderate winds and 4-5 ft seas are likely occurring along and NW of the stationary front. Seas are 2-4 ft elsewhere west of 65W. A surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure near 27N48W to 28N64W to Nassau, Bahamas to the southern tip of Florida. Gentle winds are near the surface ridge axis, including over the Bahamas. Overnight ASCAT satellite data pass showed generally moderate SW to W winds north of 28N between 66W-78W. Moderate trade winds are off the N coast of Hispaniola. A surface trough extends NE as a northern extension of the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean from 21N63.5W to 28N61W. Abundant atmospheric moisture is evident in this area as noted on Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N60W to 23N65W. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough axis is enhancing convection to the east of the surface trough. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 20.5N-26N between 54W-60.5W. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information on that area of convection. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data showed fresh SE winds within 120 nm E of the surface trough axis from 22.5N- 25N. Farther east, ASCAT data showed fresh NE trades from the Canary Islands extending southwestward to near 17N45W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. East of 65W, seas range from 4-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the modest frontal boundary extending across the NW waters to northern Florida will drift E-SE and weaken through tonight. Active weather will continue ahead of this front from the northwest Bahamas northeastward today. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed through Thu with similar weather. A broad surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean extends NE to near 28N61W is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough drifts westward. High pressure will reestablish along 27-28N Thu through Fri. $$ Stripling