000 AXNT20 KNHC 150513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 27W from 05N-22N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07.5N-09N between 21.5W-26W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis oriented NNE-SSW from 21N63.5W to St. Croix to Caracas, Venezuela to 07N68W. The tropical wave is moving W at around 15 kt. This tropical wave shows up as a trough at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12.5N between 65W-67W, and from 18N-19N between 59.5W-62.5W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W from 17N southward to inland Colombia near 06N, moving W at around 10 kt. No precipitation is noted over water with this wave. However, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted inland over western Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 88W from 20N southward to El Salvador and into the east Pacific, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted inland over southern Honduras and El Salvador, enhanced by upper- level divergence over the area. Scattered showers are also seen over southwestern portions of the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to a 1011 mb low near 17N25W to 09N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 08N51W. Scattered showers are from 06N- 08N between 30W-40W. Isolated showers are from 06N-08N between 40W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low has been moving westward and farther inland, centered along the Texas/Mexico border near Laredo, Texas as of 15/0300 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is still occurring offshore within 90 nm of the coast of southern Texas, west of 96W between 25N-28.5N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is over southern Texas and NE Mexico. A 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed near 28N89W, spreading weak ridging across the Gulf. Isolated showers are occurring off the west coast of Florida from Tampa Bay to Florida Bay. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail over the far western Gulf, west of 95W, where seas are likely 3-4 ft. NOAA buoy 42020 near 27.0N 96.7W recently reported that seas had subsided to 4 ft, whereas seas were 6 ft earlier, around noon Saturday local time. Moderate NE to E winds are west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere, with light winds near the high pressure center. Seas are 1-2 ft E of 90W and 2-3 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms and fresh winds near the Texas and northern Mexico coasts are expected to diminish later this morning as the aforementioned low pressure moves farther inland. Otherwise, moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, a weak front sinking across the Florida Big Bend tonight is expected to stall along 28.5N before dissipating this evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted over Hispaniola and Cuba. The east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the SW Caribbean, south of 12.5N and west of 73W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh NE to E trade winds over the south-central Caribbean with moderate trades elsewhere, except for gentle north of 17N between 71W-83W. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central, south-central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 2-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to the southeast Bahamas and currently supports moderate trade winds across the south central Caribbean. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean, and will reach 70W later this morning, move across the central Caribbean tonight through Tue afternoon, then across the western basin Tue night through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly across the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through Fri to produce fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends from 31N76W to the coast of Florida near 29N81W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N74W to central Cuba. A surface trough extends from 31N68W to 29N69W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N-31N between 65W- 74W. Isolated showers are from 27N-31N between 74W-79W. Moderate winds and 4-5 ft seas are likely occurring near the stationary front. Seas are 2-4 ft elsewhere west of 65W. A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31N47W to 28N64W to Nassau, Bahamas to the southern tip of Florida. Gentle winds are near the surface ridge axis, including over the Bahamas. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows generally moderate SW to W winds north of 28N between 66W-78W. Moderate trade winds are off the N coast of Hispaniola. A surface trough extends NNE as a northern extension of the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean from 21N63.5W to 28N59W. Abundant atmospheric moisture is evident in this area as noted on Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N60W to 23N65W. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough axis is enhancing convection to the east of the surface trough. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 21N-26N between 54W-60.5W. Please see the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information on that area of convection. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh SE winds within 120 nm E of the surface trough axis from 22.5N- 25N. Farther east, ASCAT data shows fresh NE trades from the Canary Islands extending southwestward to near 17N45W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. East of 65W, seas range from 3-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a modest frontal boundary that extends from 31N76W to northern Florida will drift E-SE and weaken today. Periods of active weather will continue well east of this front through today. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed through Thu with similar weather. A broad surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean extends from 21N63.5W to 28N59W and is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough shifts westward. This area of convection from 21N-26N between 54W-60.5W has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hr as it moves slowly to the NNW. High pressure will reestablish along 27-28N Thu through Fri. $$ Hagen