000 AXNT20 KNHC 142340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 22N southward, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis from 22N61W to 11N68W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A surface trough is north of the tropical wave from 28N57W to 22N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 27N between 54W-60W. Scattered showers are noted in the wake of the wave across the eastern Caribbean. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 71W from 17N southward to Venezuela near 12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern portion of the wave affecting northern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 20N southward to central Honduras, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the northern half of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland across the southern half of the wave affecting Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W to a 1010 mb low near 18N22W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 09N59W. Scattered showers are from 06N-08N between 29W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface low inland near 28N98W continues to enhance convection across the NW portion of the basin, mainly N of 25N and W of 96W. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are noted off the Texas coast with seas up to 6 ft off the Corpus Christi coast. Although no additional development of this system is expected as it moves over land, heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of southern Texas through Monday, which could cause localized areas of flash flooding. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is moving southward across the eastern Gulf waters mainly E of 85W. This activity is preceding a cold front that currently extends across northern Florida along 29N and E of 85W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf with seas 2-3 ft. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected to stall along northern Florida through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The NW Caribbean with light winds and seas 1-2 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough S of 12N between 70W and 81W. Light and variable winds and seas of 2 ft or less prevail across the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted across the remainder of the basin with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will gradually strengthen starting Tue, causing fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central Caribbean and fresh trades for the north-central portion. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across the Lesser Antilles, expect sporadic showers and tstms to persist through tonight. This system will then impact the eastern basin from Mon through Tue morning, the central basin Tue afternoon through Wed, and finally the western basin Wed evening through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak cold front is dropping southward across the western Atlantic, analyzed from 31N77W to 29N81W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 30N76W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the SW N Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 68W and 80W. Gentle northerly winds are noted behind the front with moderate southerly winds ahead of the front and near the trough. Seas are 2-4 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds are noted from 23N northward to the surface high, with gentle to moderate easterly winds across the rest of the basin. Seas range 4-6 ft. A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high near 25N35W across the central Atlantic to Florida. A trough is noted in the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 24N37W. For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of active weather will continue ahead of this front from the northwest Bahamas northeastward through that time. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed and Thu with similar weather. A broad surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave is generating strong thunderstorms with locally moderate to fresh winds well northeast of Puerto Rico. This trend will persist through Tue while gradually shifting westward. $$ ERA