000 AXNT20 KNHC 141027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 24W from 22N southward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 04N, moving W near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure lingers east of the wave axis near 17N20.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N between 18W and 28W. Widely scattered weak to moderate convection is also noted within 240 nm across the W semicircle of the low pressure center. A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 23N59.5W across the Lesser Antilles to to 06N63.5W in Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. A broad surface trough accompanies this tropical wave and extends farther NE to 27N55W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm west of the wave axis from 06N to 11N. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over water within 210 nm W and 420 nm E of the wave axis S of 16N. The northern portion of the wave and surface trough axis is interacting with a middle level trough to produce numerous moderate to strong convection from 22.5N to 27N between 50W and 58W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 69W from 17N southward to Venezuela near 07N, moving W near 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is along the wave axis south of 15N extending inland across Venezuela to 09N. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection trails the wave axis, from coastal portions of NE Nicaragua to the NW coast of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 1010 mb low pressure near 17N20.5W to 10N42W. The ITCZ is noted from 06N44W to 10N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 44W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered thunderstorm activity has increased across the Texas coastal waters in recent hours, in association with a 1012 mb surface low near 27.5N97W and trough extending NE into eastern Texas. 0300 UTC ASCAT satellite data showed moderate winds surrounding the low center, except for a small area of 20 kt winds of easterly winds along the central Texas coast. Area buoys show seas of 3 to 4 ft across this area, possibly as high as 5 ft across the central Texas coastal waters. The trough will be moving fully inland into Texas later this morning. However, active weather may continue over the northwestern and west-central Gulf through Mon morning. Heavy rains are forecast across southern Texas through Monday. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. Elsewhere, isolated tstorms are occurring over the far SW Gulf, south of 22N and west of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted offshore of the Florida Big Bend, north of 28N and east of 87W. High pressure ridging extends across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1016 mb high pressure near 28N86W. Light to gentle winds are near the high pressure center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE Gulf and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The high pressure extending across N Florida and into the NE Gulf will sink slowly southward through Wed. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is expected to stall along the northern Gulf coasts from southeast Louisiana to northern Florida through Mon. Moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper-level trough axis extending from the SE Bahamas across eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras is supporting isolated showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean, while earlier convection across Haiti and Cuba has ended. The east Pacific monsoon trough, situated over the SW Caribbean along 11N, is inducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection along it between 75W-77W, just off the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, locally fresh in the south-central Caribbean offshore of NE Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are estimated at 4-6 ft over the south-central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas and will gradually weaken through Tue. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave along 61-62W will move westward across the eastern Caribbean today, reach 70W Sun night, move across the central Caribbean Mon through Tue, and across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. This will yield mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin thought late Mon. High pressure will begin to build in across the region behind the tropical wave Tue through Wed and bring a return to fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends from 31N77W to near Jacksonville, FL. A surface trough to the southeast of the front extends from 31N78W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N-31N between 73W-77W. Another surface trough extends from 31N70W to 27N76W. An upper- level trough axis extends from 31N77W to the NW Bahamas. Another upper- level trough axis extends from Bermuda to 24N70W to eastern Cuba. The upper- level troughs are enhancing the aforementioned convection. Farther east, a surface trough from 23N59W to 27N54W is an extension of a tropical wave mentioned above. A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure near 32N45W to 29N67W to 24N76W to South Florida. Gentle or weaker wind speeds prevail near the ridge axis. Moderate winds are occurring north of 28N and west of 69W where the surface troughs are producing convection. West of 65W, seas are about 3 ft. Fresh NE trades are noted from 17N-27N between 17W-35W. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. Moderate or weaker winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere east of 65W. For the forecast W of 55W, the weak frontal boundary extending from near the Florida-Georgia border E-NE across the W Atlantic and will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of active weather will continue well ahead of the front, N of 28N and W of 68W through Sun night. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed and Thu to produce similar weather. High pressure over the central Atlantic extending to the central Bahamas will weaken through Tue as a broad surface trough associated with a tropical wave moves across the southeast waters and into the SE Bahamas. High pressure will build into the Bahamas Wed through Thu to freshen trade winds S of 24N. $$ Stripling