000 AXNT20 KNHC 110548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on the 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 13N. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 720 nm of the center in the western quadrant. The upper level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, while the system moves westward to west-northwestward 15 to 20 mph in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 kt. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 08N to 18N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. This wave touches the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean Sea, Honduras, and southward into parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 12N to 21N, including in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 80W and the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N along the 35W/36W tropical wave, to 12N49W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 24W and 27W, and in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Africa from 09N to 12N between 13W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N to 10N between 23W and 31W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 10N between Africa and 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 250 mb in the same area is showing anticyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N southward from 90W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, between the Atlantic Ocean- Florida Panhandle upper level cyclonic wind flow, and the GFS 700 mb inverted trough. An inland Texas surface trough is in east central Texas and central Texas. Earlier numerous strong convective precipitation was in Texas from 29N to 31N between its border with Louisiana and 98W. That precipitation has been weakening since 11/0100 UTC. Some of the remnant clouds and precipitation now are in parts of the NW Gulf of Mexico from 28N northward from 93W westward A weak surface ridge extends from SW Georgia, through the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Fresh winds are in the Straits of Florida/the SE Gulf of Mexico from 85W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet. A tropical wave moving across Belize, Honduras into the E Pacific waters is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms in the Yucatan peninsula and immediate offshore waters in the Bay of Campeche. Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant feature across the basin through Fri. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate return flow. By Sat, the ridge will weaken, and winds will become light to gentle through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to locally fresh in the evenings off the northwest Yucatan through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is to the north of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and comparatively lower surface pressures in Colombia, support fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from: 6 feet to 9 feet in the central Caribbean Sea; and from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, through Panama, beyond western Panama/southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 75W and 79W. High pressure centered E of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through Thu before weakening. This will maintain mainly fresh easterly winds across the central and SW Caribbean through Thu night as a tropical wave also moves across this region of the basin. Locally strong winds are still likely along the coast of Colombia tonight. Winds will reach gentle to moderate speeds basin-wide on Fri, prevailing through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N73W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from the Windward Passage northward between 67W and the Florida Panhandle. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 26N northward between 42W and 62W. A surface trough is from 31N northward between 49W and 55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward from the line 31N41W 20N55W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward from 30W eastward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. Strong northerly winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Africa from 18N to 23N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are from 20N southward from 60W westward; and from 20N northward from 45W eastward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of 20N. The sea heights range from: 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N northward reaching near 5 feet from 40W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet are in the tropical waters from 20N southward. Surface ridging centered E of Bermuda and extending across the region will weaken on Thu, thus maintaining mainly fresh easterly winds S of of 25N. Afterward, winds will reach moderate speeds, which will continue through Sat. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through this period. Otherwise, a tropical wave will reach the SE offshore waters by Sat with a slight increase in winds and seas over that region through early on Mon. $$ MT