000
AXNT20 KNHC 102201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward, 
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 14N between 32W and 40W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 20N southward,  
moving west about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N to 
12N between 46W and 51W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W from 20N southward,
moving west about 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are evident near the Islands of Trinidad and 
Tobago.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward into 
the East Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf of 
Honduras and near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 13N327W to
12N50W. The ITCZ continues from 12N50W to 14N60W. Other than 
convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N
to 10N between 12W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf continues to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 25N. A weak
surface ridge lies across the Gulf coast states. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the far eastern Gulf, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. 

For the forecast, Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant 
feature across the basin through Fri. This will result in mainly 
gentle to moderate return flow. By Sat, the ridge will weaken, 
and winds will become light to gentle through early next week. 
Winds will also pulse moderate to locally fresh in the evenings 
off the northwest Yucatan through early next week. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft
range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered ENE of Bermuda will 
remain nearly stationary through Thu before weakening. This will 
result in fresh to strong trade winds persisting across portions 
of the central and SW Caribbean through tonight. Winds will 
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds early Thu morning as a 
tropical wave approaches the eastern basin. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate trade winds are forecast for the central and eastern 
Caribbean from Thu night through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N54W to 27N58W. Scattered
moderate showers are in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure
prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters north
of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted south of 20N
and west of 60W, and north of 20N east of 45W. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere north of 20N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
north of 20N, reaching near 5 ft east of 40W. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail over the tropical waters south
of 20N. 

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging centered ENE of 
Bermuda and extending across the region will weaken this evening.
The fresh to locally strong winds S of 25N will diminish 
tonight, becoming moderate to locally fresh by Thu. A cold front 
will approach northern Florida by Sat and stall through Mon, 
bringing moderate winds off the NE Florida coast. Light to gentle
variable winds are expected elsewhere through the weekend. 
Otherwise, a tropical wave will reach the eastern offshore waters
by Sat with a slight increase in winds and seas over that region
through the weekend. 

$$
AL