000 AXNT20 KNHC 092200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W/30W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 25W and 35W. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days, but environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 5 days. The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W from 20N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Isolated showers are observed from 11N to 13N between 42W and 48W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W/58W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection is near this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W south of 18N, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 80W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 12N29W to 13N47W. The ITCZ continues from 13N47W to 13N57W. Aside from convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 17W and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Active convection is ongoing across much of the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the far SE Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, A divergent flow aloft is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the eastern half of the basin, including the Florida Peninsula. This activity will enhance winds and seas in the area. The Atlantic surface ridge extends W along 30N and will prevail through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected across the Florida Straits and portions of the SE Gulf through Wed. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between Bermuda high pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds over noted over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with axis near 82W is enhancing convection in the area. The wave will continue moving W across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed enhancing winds/seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail from Thu through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N42W to 25N48W. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted north of Hispaniola into the approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere south of 22N and west of 65W. Light to gentle winds prevail generally north of 20N and west of 40W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found north of 20N and east of 40W. In the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range north of 28N and west of 40W, with seas in the 3-6 ft range prevailing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, a surface ridge will remain centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. $$ AL