000 AXNT20 KNHC 091041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 25/26W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 15N, between 22W and 30W. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter portion of the week before environmental conditions become less favorable by this weekend. A tropical wave extends along 41W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 17N, between 35W and 43W. A tropical wave extends along 54W, from 06N to 19N moving W at 15 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave extends along 78W, S of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the wave in the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 11N26W to 13N41W to 10N50W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 14N between 13N and 20N. Numerous moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 30W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... The northern portion of a tropical wave moving across the Bay of Campeche continues to generate active weather across the SW Gulf this morning. Moisture inflow from the Caribbean and a middle-level trough over the eastern half of the basin continue to support scattered showers and tstms in that region, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan channel. Otherwise, the Bermuda high continues to extend a ridge across the basin, which is supporting mainly light to gentle return flow, except for the Straits of Florida and the far SE gulf where moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail. For the forecast, the northern portion of the tropical wave will maintain active weather across the SW Gulf through late this morning. The Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Moderate NE to E winds will briefly pulse to fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche through Wed night. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also expected across the Florida straits and portions of the SE Gulf through Wed. Otherwise, a middle-level trough across the eastern half of the basin will continue to enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms in that region through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly trade winds across the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern basin with 5-7 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin with 7-10 ft seas, and moderate in the NW basin with 3 ft seas. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are throughout the NW Caribbean associated with a tropical wave. For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean near 78W and accompanied by active weather will continue to move westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Active weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the tropical N Atlc waters late Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds are forecast Fri through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high continues to dominate the pattern in the western Atlantic, which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 55W, except S of 25N and W of 70W where fresh to locally strong winds prevail. Winds are gentle to moderate in the central Atlantic with seas to 5 ft while in the eastern subtropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds with seas to 7 ft dominate. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are in the Great Bahama Bank. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. $$ Ramos