000 AXNT20 KNHC 081026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W from 03N to 20N moving westward at 5-10 kt. Satellite imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to convection from 10N to 15N between the coast of Africa and 22W. This activity also extends inland Africa for 180 nm. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression may form around the middle to latter part of the week as the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic. The current outlook states that tropical development is not expected within the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance within 5 days. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 04N to 21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to 13N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 03N to 21N moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm east of the wave from 09N to 12N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W from 03N to 21N moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is underneath an upper-level trough. This feature is helping to sustain an area of scattered moderate convection that trails the wave from 14N to 18N between 69W-72W. The previous western Caribbean tropical wave that was along 85W is now being described in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 14N28W to 12N40W to 10N50W and to 09N54W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to near the coastal border between Venezuela and Guyana. Aside from convection associated to tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection in clusters is noted from 09N to 14N between 22W-28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the monsoon trough between 41W-44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 38W-41W and within 60 nm north of the monsoon trough between 48W-50W GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is identified on satellite water vapor imagery over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 23N95W, while abundant deep layer moisture is present over the area and a surface trough is analyzed along 84W from 26N to Apalachee Bay. These factors have been conducive for sustaining scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over most of the Gulf, and continue to do so the south of a line from 29N83W to 27N91W and to 26N99W. The western extension of the Bermuda high extends to the far NE Gulf. The associated gradient is maintaining gentle to moderate east-southeast winds across the basin along with relatively low seas of 2-4 ft. Slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft are over the southeastern and north-central Gulf waters. Expect locally stronger winds and rough seas in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, expect for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over most of the basin through at least this evening due to aforementioned factors in play. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night. A mid to upper-level trough just east of NE Florida will shift to the NE Gulf today through Tue night and to the north-central and NW Gulf Wed through Fri enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across those sections of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the Colombian Basin is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the majority of the Caribbean, with the exception of fresh to strong trade winds over the far south- central waters near Colombia and over and near the Gulf of Venezuela. An overnight ASCAT data pass confirmed that strong NE winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft from 11N to 18N between 72W-80W, 3-5 ft from 18N to 20N between 80W-85W and north of 20N between eastern Cuba and 85W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere except for lower seas of 2-4 ft over the far northwest section of the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean and over and near the Gulf of Venezuela will continue pulsing through the forecast period. A tropical wave currently along 74W will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and rough seas as it continues westward across the rest of the central Caribbean through this morning, and across the remainder of the basin through early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over the western Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the week. The next tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue through Wed night and across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over those waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high continues to dominate the weather pattern in the western Atlantic. Gentle east winds increase to moderate to fresh east winds south of about 25N. Fresh to strong northeast to east are between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola and over and near the Windward Passage area as highlighted in an overnight ASCAT data pass. Seas are generally 4-6 ft throughout the western Atlantic, except for seas of 5-7 ft between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Marine conditions are more favorable in the central Atlantic, where gentle easterly winds increase to moderate speeds south of 23N. Seas are in the general range of 3-6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft from 12N to 27N between 51W-68W as noted in recent altimeter data passes. Moderate northeast winds dominate the eastern Atlantic, with a fresh to strong breeze near the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of the area of stronger winds, where they build to 6-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A mid to upper- level trough just east of northeast Florida will move inland by early this afternoon. A surface trough relection extends from 31N76W to 27N78W. These features will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern waters east of northeast Florida today. $$ Aguirre