000 AXNT20 KNHC 080400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 18W, from 03N to 20N, moving W at 5 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 14N, between the coast of Africa and 21W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression may form around the middle to latter part of the week as the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic. The current outlook states that tropical development is not expected within the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance within 5 days. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W, from 04N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N, between 32W and 38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 46W, from 03N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N, between 39W and 47W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 72W, from 03N to 21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed behind the wave from 13N to 16N, between 66W and 72W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85W, from 03N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over Honduras and Costa Rica, with isolated moderate convection in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W across the majority of the basin to 09N54W. The ITCZ continues from 09N54W to 08N60W near the coastal border between Venezuela and Guyana. All significant convection is related to the 3 Atlantic tropical waves, described above. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low over the SW Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the central basin, Bay of Campeche, and Yucatan Channel. A westward propagating line of thunderstorms is also observed near the west coast of Florida. The overall pattern remains relatively unchanged, dominated by ridging from the Bermuda high. As a result, gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. Expect locally stronger winds and choppy seas in and around thunderstorms. For the forecast, upper-level divergence east of an upper-level low that is over the SW Gulf will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin through Mon night. Due to local effects, fresh to strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight and Mon night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Bay of Campeche tonight enhancing winds and seas. An upper-level low is expected to shift from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf on Mon possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across this area. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the Colombian Basin is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade wind flow across the majority of the Caribbean. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed that strong NE winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in the eastern and central basin and 3-5 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue pulsing through the forecast period. A tropical wave currently along 72W will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and rough seas as it continues westward across the rest of the central Caribbean through early Mon and the remainder of the basin through early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over the western Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high continues to dominate the weather pattern in the western Atlantic. Gentle winds increase to moderate easterlies south of approximately 25-27N. Winds continue to increase southward, reaching a fresh breeze near the southern Bahamas, impacting the entrance to the Windward Passage and the Old Bahama Channel. Seas are generally 4-6 ft throughout the western Atlantic. Conditions are more favorable in the central Atlantic, where gentle winds increase to moderate south of 23N. Seas are 3-6 ft, gradually increasing as latitude decreases. Moderate NE winds dominate the eastern Atlantic, with a fresh to strong breeze near the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of the area of stronger winds, where they build to 6-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A mid to upper- level trough will track westward across the northern waters toward NE Florida through early Mon enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Flynn