000 AXNT20 KNHC 062202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 23W and 29W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 22N southward moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 10N to 13N between 37W and 42W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W, extending just E of the Lesser Antilles, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 76W from just S of eastern Cuba into Colombia, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Convection previously associated with this tropical wave has diminished. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W southwestward to 12N26W then westward to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 10N56W. Convection in the vicinity of these features is associated with the tropical waves described above. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough from 29N88W southward to the Yucatan Peninsula is initiating scattered moderate convection within 90 nm either side of its axis. Otherwise high pressure centered NE of the area continues to dominate the basin. Gentle to moderate winds encompass most of the basin, but locally fresh winds are occurring near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as well as in the Florida Straits. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft in the Floria Straits. For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are mainly over the eastern Gulf N of 23N and E of 91W. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in the SW Caribbean, which passes through 1008 mb Colombian/Panamanian Low near 10N78W, is producing scattered moderate convection from the coast of Panama north to 12N west of 78W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed in and near the Gulf of Honduras and extends northward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh trades continue over the E, Central, and SW Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft with strong trades in the south- central Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun with the passage of a tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will continue over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night, and then again Wed night and Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the subtropical Atlantic. An upper-level low pressure centered near 31N74W and associated deep layer trough are producing scattered moderate convection N of 28N between 68W and 76W, otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions dominate. Mainly moderate trades prevail with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Locally fresh winds are occurring N of Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located near Bermuda will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters toward the general area of NE Florida through Sun night generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Konarik