368 AXNT20 KNHC 061022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from 06N to 21N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm west of the wave from 13N to 16N. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 06N to 22N moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection is limited with this wave as only scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 07N to 10N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 05N to 21N moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are on either side of this wave from 13N to 16N between 52W-60W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 72W from Hispaniola southward into Venezuela. It is moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the southern coast of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal boarder of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W southwestward to 12N23W and to 11N32W to 11N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N40W to 10N47W and to 10N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 26W-29W, also between 36W-39W and within 30 nm of the monsoon trough between 23W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low over the south-central Gulf near 24N88W, with associated inverted trough extending northward to near Mobile, Alabama is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 24N to 29N between 84W-88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are concentrated over the central Gulf from 23N to 25N between 88W-93W. Weak surface high pressure ridging across the northern Gulf continues to dominate the synoptic pattern with mainly moderate east-southwest winds and relatively low seas of 2-4 ft across the basin. Fresh easterly winds, as seen in overnight ASCAT data, are over the Straits of Florida, where seas likely reach a maximum of 6 ft. For the forecast, the weak surface high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf and over the western part of the central Gulf are a result of a mid to upper-level trough. This activity will gradually shift westward through this evening. Similar activity also moving westward is over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean is supporting fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are generally 6-8 ft. A small area of fresh to strong northeast to east inds along the coast of Colombia is building seas to around 9 ft. In the northeastern Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with relatively low seas of 2-4 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the majority of western half of the basin. Similar activity is just offshore Cuba and Haiti. Patches of moisture in the form of low-level clouds along with isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving westward in the trade wind flow over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean to along the coast of Colombia will continue through Tue night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun with the passage of a tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will continue over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, Sun night and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, an upper-level low located near 31N72W is moving to the west. A mid to upper-level trough is noted from the low south-southwest to the southeastern Bahamas. Pockets of scattered showers and thunderstorms are present from about 26N to 31N and between 60W-75W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 65W, including the areas of the Bahama Islands and Straits of Florida. This activity is moving in a westward direction, with the activity west of the Bahamas tracking to the west-northwest. Some of this activity is capable of producing strong gusts of wind. Per overnight ASCAT data passes, moderate east-southeast winds and seas of 3-5 ft dominate the waters north of 25N. Farther south, winds increase to fresh easterlies with 5-7 ft seas, including the Old Bahama Channel, Windward Passage and Florida Straits. Conditions are similar in the central Atlantic, with slightly weaker winds. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast winds are present there along with resultant seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure will change little through the weekend, then shift S early next week. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. The aforementioned upper-level low and mid to upper-level trough will track from E to W across the northern waters toward the general area of NE Florida through Sun night generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Aguirre