000 AXNT20 KNHC 060404 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 20W from 06N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 14N, between 18W and 21W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 06N to 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W from 05N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 69W from Hispaniola southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are observed along the southern coast of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W across the majority of the tropical Atlantic to 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the feature from 07N to 11N, between 24W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low over the south-central Gulf is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the northern half of the basin, though they have been losing intensity over the last six hours. Weak surface ridging across the northern Gulf continues to dominate the synoptic pattern with mainly moderate E-SE wind and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. Fresh easterly winds are observed in the Florida Straits, where seas likely reach 6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf and over the western part of the central Gulf are a result of a surface trough that extends from 28N93W to 24N94W and a mid to upper-level trough in its vicinity. This activity will gradually shift westward through Sat. Similar activity also moving westward is over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh easterly winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are generally 6-8 ft. A small area of strong to near gale force NE winds along the coast of Colombia is building seas to 10 ft. In the NW Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the western half of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, moderate E-SE winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the waters north of 25N. Farther south, winds increase to fresh easterlies with 5-7 ft seas, including the Old Bahama Channel, Windward Passage and Florida Straits. Conditions are similar in the central Atlantic, with slightly weaker winds. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located N of the area will change little through the weekend, then shift S early next week. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N through Tue night, then mainly moderate east winds Wed and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night. An upper-level low and related surface trough will track from E to W across the northern waters through the weekend generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Flynn