000 AXNT20 KNHC 051737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave has just emerged from the coast of Africa. The tropical wave is along 17W, from 20N southward, and likely moving W at 10-15 kt based on model analyzed 700 mb wind speeds. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N east of 21W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 29W from 22N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection is limited along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from 21N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis south of 10N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W from 20N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Senegal near 12N16W to 11N25W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to 06N57W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the Monsoon Trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and tstorms are evident in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the Texas coast. A surface trough analyzed earlier this morning in the Bay of Campeche has dissipated. The Gulf of Mexico continues to be influenced by high pressure ridging along the western periphery of the subtropical Atlantic high. Light to gentle E to SE winds prevail as evidence by the latest scatterometer data and surface observations. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours tonight and Sat night west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are affecting much of the northern and central Gulf. Winds and seas may be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, which passes through the SW Caribbean and 1008 mb Colombian/Panamanian low centered near 10N80W, is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 78W and 82W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is impacting the W Caribbean, from 12N to 19N between 80W and 83W. Fresh trades are evident in the central and SW Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas, highest near 11N77W. In the E Caribbean, trades are moderate to locally fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N69W to 28N73W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. This trough is co- located with an upper level low. The remainder of the Atlantic continues to be dominated by the subtropical Atlantic high centered north of the area. This morning's scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, locally fresh along the Greater Antilles. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin, increasing to 7 ft near the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge north of the area will change little through early next week. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight to moderate seas will remain over most of the region through early next week. An upper- level disturbance will track from E to W across the northern waters through the weekend generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night. $$ Mahoney