000 AXNT20 KNHC 050400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 06N to 22N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 11N, between 22W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W, from 04N to 21N, moving west at 20 kt. Convection is isolated and weak near the southern portion of the wave. A tropical wave previously in the western Atlantic has been relocated farther west into the eastern Caribbean based on 00 UTC surface and upper air observations from the Lesser Antilles. It is currently analyzed along 62W, from 05N to 19N, moving west at 20 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 21N16W to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to 08N59W, along the coast of Guyana. Scattered weak convection is noted south of the monsoon trough axis from 07N to 10N, between 27W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 29N, between the coast of Florida and 95W. These thunderstorms are gradually shifting westward and weakening. At the surface, weak ridging over the northern Gulf is producing moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central and southern Gulf, with moderate SE winds in the northern Gulf. A high pressure center is analyzed in the far NE Gulf, where winds are light and variable. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the NE portion of the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas into early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again Fri night due to a diurnal trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms generated by a mid-level trough over the central Gulf are spreading west-southwestward the central Gulf waters, and over portions of the NW Gulf. This activity is expected to continue through Fri. Winds and seas may be higher in and near showers and thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous moderate convection over the southwest Caribbean waters south of 14N and west of 78W. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to enhanced easterlies throughout the majority of the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern basin with 4-6 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin with 6-8 ft seas and gentle to moderate in the NW basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Mon night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low above the western subtropical Atlantic is supporting a surface trough NE of the Bahamas with isolated moderate convection west of 65W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by subtropical high pressure centered NE of Bermuda. In the western Atlantic, easterly winds are moderate north of 25N with 3-5 ft seas and fresh south of 25N with 4-6 ft seas. Easterly winds are generally moderate to fresh throughout the central Atlantic with 4-6 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, low pressure over NW Africa is creating a tighter gradient and stronger winds. NE winds are generally fresh with a recent scatterometer pass confirming strong gap winds near the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft in the region. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge north of the area will change little through early next week. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight to moderate seas will remain over most of the area through early next week. An upper- level disturbance will track from E to W across the northern waters through the weekend attendant by scattered showers and thunderstorms that are expected to affect those waters. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night. $$ Flynn