000 AXNT20 KNHC 042200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, from 06N to 22N, through the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 15W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 04N to 21N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W from 19N to Guyana near 04N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 12N between 54W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through northern Mauritania near 20N16W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 08N55W. Aside from convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 44W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough located over the central Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection over the central Gulf from 23N to 31N between 84W and 94W. This mid-level trough will move westward, spreading thunderstorms over the northwest Gulf on Fri and into Texas Saturday, while weakening. At the surface, weak ridging continues over the basin, leading to mainly gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas in the eastern Gulf. Over the western Gulf, mainly moderate SE winds dominate with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas into early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again Fri night due to a diurnal trough. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf will move westward affecting the NW Gulf on Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper-level low that had been impacting the far NW Caribbean is weakening and moving into the Yucatan Peninsula, so associated convection over the waters has diminished. The eastern end of the east Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwest Caribbean waters south of 16N and west of 79W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted south of Hispaniola, likely triggered by upper- level diffluence in the area. Mainly fresh winds are occurring over the eastern and central Caribbean, although strong trades have developed in the south- central basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, with 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia. In the SW basin, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate, with gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft in the NW. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Mon night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low is centered in the vicinity of 29N65W. An associated surface trough extends from 31N69W to just NE of the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted with these features, N of 26N between 65W and 74W. The subtropical ridge axis is north of area, along 33N. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail N of 26N. S of 26N, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds prevail near the Canary Islands to the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight to moderate seas will remain over most of the area through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night. $$ Konarik