000 AXNT20 KNHC 041554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W/22W from 06N to 22N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm either side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 04N to 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is concentrated along where the wave intersects the monsoon trough, from 07N-09N between 36W-40W. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56/57W south 19N to inland Suriname near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 07N to 12N between 54W-61W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence in the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through northern Mauritania near 20N16W to 08N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 08N48W to 08N55W. Aside from convection mentioned above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-13N between the coast of Africa and 18W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 44W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough located over the central Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate thunderstorms over the central Gulf, inside a box with vertices 24N84W 23N91W 30N94W 31N87W 24N84W. This mid-level trough will move westward, spreading thunderstorms over the northwest Gulf on Fri and into Texas Saturday, while weakening. At the surface, weak ridging continues over the basin, leading to mainly gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. The exception is the far western portion of the basin, where the latest buoy observations are reporting moderate S winds with seas 3-5 ft. The weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas into early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again Fri night due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low near the western tip of Cuba is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the far northwest Caribbean Sea, including near the southern coast of western Cuba. Convergent trades are producing similar conditions over the southeastern basin near the ABC Islands, where a nearby upper-level trough is further enhancing this activity. The eastern end of the east Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the southwest Caribbean waters south of 15N and west of 77.5W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are also noted south of Hispaniola, likely triggered by upper-level diffluence in the area. Mainly fresh trade winds are occurring over the eastern and central Caribbean, shown in recent ASCAT satellite data. Seas are 5-6 ft in this area, except 6-8 ft off the coast of Colombia. Moderate E winds are found in the northwest basin, where seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Mon night. Winds will remain fresh over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A potent upper-level low is centered in the vicinity of 27N65W. A surface trough is located just to the northwest of the upper-low center, oriented from 31N68W to 26N71W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are occurring within 210 nm either side of the surface trough axis and to the northeast of the central Bahamas, to include portions of the area from 23.5N-31N between 64W-75.5W. The subtropical ridge is north of area, along 34N. Mainly moderate E-SE winds prevail west of 70W and north of the Bahamas with 3-4 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail to the north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle winds prevail north of a line from 24N70W to 28N50W to 31N30W, where seas are 3-4 ft. Moderate to fresh NE trades and 4-7 ft seas are occurring from that line southward to the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds prevail near the Canary Islands to the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will persist just north of the area. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight to moderate seas will remain over most of the area through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Mon. $$ Hagen