000
AXNT20 KNHC 041030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 04 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W/21W 
from 05N to 22N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 
08N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W/38W from 
04N to 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is concentrated along and near the monsoon trough 
between 34W-40W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south 21N
to inland Suriname near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
07N to 12N between 50W-58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara- 
Mauritania border, southwestward across the Cabo Verde Islands to
10N32W and to 08N40W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N40W to 09N47W
and to 10N54W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ 
between 42W-49W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A rather weak mid to upper-level trough centered over the
southeastern Gulf is helping to set off scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over most of the eastern Gulf waters.
Similar activity is noted from 26N to 29N between 84W-90W.
A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1018 mb high 
over the northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. It is 
supporting light to gentle winds and 2-3 ft seas for the north- 
central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh northeast
to east and southeast winds along with seas of 3-4 ft are 
along the western Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to 
moderate northeast to east and southeast remain and seas of 
2-3 ft remain elsewhere for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridging will support gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf into early 
next week. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse west of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evening hours through mid-week due to a 
diurnal trough. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near the Island of Youth is resulting in 
unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba and east coast of 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Convergent trades are producing similar 
conditions over the southeastern basin near the ABC Islands, where 
the added ingredient of a nearby upper-level trough is further
enhancing this activity. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to strong northeast to 
east trade winds along with seas of 6-8 ft seas are present in 
the south-central section of the basin, north of Colombia. Gentle
northeast to east trade winds and seas of 3-4 ft are in the 
northwestern section of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh 
easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail for the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the 
central Caribbean, while freshen over the eastern Caribbean 
through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will 
persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low north of Pareto Rico near 26N64W is
generating isolated thunderstorms from north of 25N between 62W
and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda
High is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft north
of 23N between 50W and the George-Florida coast. Gentle to 
moderate northeast trade winds and 4-6 ft seas are farther south 
from 10N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, and farther 
east north of 18N between 25W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands, 
Moderate to fresh north to north-northeast trade winds are present
north of 23N between the northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle 
to moderate monsoonal and southeasterly winds along with 4-6 ft 
remain for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge related to the Bermuda High
along 31N will lift north of the area through Fri. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will remain 
over most of the area through early next week. Fresh to 
occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and
in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late 
afternoons and overnight hours through late Mon.

$$
Aguirre