774 AXNT20 KNHC 030934 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is along 17W south of 23N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near the coast Guinea-Bissau. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 20N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 09N to 11N between 49W and 52W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 18N southward through eastern Honduras and Nicaragua to Costa Rica and into the East Pacific, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara- Mauritania border, passing near the Cabo Verde Islands to 08N35W. No significant convection is associated with the monsoon trough. An ITCZ continues from 09N35W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 43W and 47W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms in a line from the coast of Colombia to off the coast of Panama, to the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends from 1018 mb high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf near 29N85W to coast of Tamaulipas. Observations along the coast of Texas are showing 20 kt SE winds on the western edge of this ridge. But elsewhere this pattern is supporting light breezes and slight seas over the northeast Gulf, and mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas elsewhere. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has been moving across the Bay of Campeche, and is now active off Veracruz but shrinking in size. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf into Sun. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago indicated fresh to strong NE winds off Colombia where seas may be 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds were also evident in the Gulf of Venezuela, and fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the northwest Caribbean. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are evident over the southwest Caribbean from the coast of Colombia to off the coast of Panama, to the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean are starting to diminish, but will freshen slightly over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active about 300 nm south of Bermuda, associated with a broad upper-level low centered near 23N63W. A surface trough is also associated with the upper low along 62W/63W from 22N to 30N. The trough as been drifting westward over the past couple of days, displacing a surface ridge that has been oriented along 30N, but is not starting to lift northward ahead of the trough. The ridge now extends from 1021 mb high pressure area over Bermuda to northeast Florida. The displacement northward has allowed strong E winds off Hispaniola to diminish slightly, however moderate to fresh NE to E winds persist south of 25N west of 55W, with 3 to 5 ft seas except for up to 6 ft off Hispaniola near the entrances to the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted north of 25N west of 55W. Farther east, moderate NE winds are noted with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for higher winds/seas off northwest Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along roughly 30N lifting north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas over most of the area through Sun. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Sun. $$ Christensen