000 AXNT20 KNHC 030603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave is along the northwest African coast from southern Sahara southward to offshore of Sierra Leone, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near the coast from Senegal southward to Guinea. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 20N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 05N to 12N between 48W and 53W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 18N southward parallel to the Nicaragua coast across Costa Rica into the East Pacific, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the Costa Rica-Panama border and nearby Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara- Mauritania border, passing near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15N23W to 09N35W. Other than the convection related to the tropical waves, no significant convection is associated with the monsoon trough. An ITCZ continues from 09N35W to 11N48W, then resumes from 09N52W to southeast of Trinidad and Tobago at 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ segments. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough along the Florida east coast is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Florida and near the Florida southwest coast. Convergent surface winds are generating similar conditions in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to south of Tampico, Mexico. It will supporting light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across north- central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours through midweek due to a diurnal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. The Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Fresh to strong E to ENE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist across the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are present over the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in easterly swell are found along the offshore waters of Panama. Moderate to locally fresh winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean are starting to diminish this morning, but will freshen slightly over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An broad upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 23N63W is triggering scattered moderate convection from 24N to 30W between 62W and 66W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda High is promoting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 22N between 42W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted farther south from 10N to 22N between 42W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles and farther east, north of 12N between 26W and 42W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present near the Canary Islands north of 23N between the northwest African coast and 26W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southeasterly winds with 4 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge related to the Bermuda High will prevail along 30N through tonight, then will lift north of the area, maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas over most of the area through Sun. Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Sun. $$ Chan