000 AXNT20 KNHC 022313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W from 03N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to 11N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49W, from 02N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 330 nm E of the wave axis from 09.5N to 13N. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 81/82W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed within 270 nm either side of the wave axis south of 14.5N, covering much of the southwest Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, NW Colombia and portions of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W through the Cabo Verde Islands near 15N24W to 12N29W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 11N47W, then resumes from 10N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored by a 1020 mb high pressure near the Mouth of the Mississippi River. An upper-level trough axis is oriented east-west across the northern Gulf Coast. As a result, upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered thunderstorms over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico, most concentrated from 26N-28N between 84.5W-91W. Outside of the thunderstorms, mainly gentle winds prevail across the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft over the northeastern Gulf, increasing slightly to 2-4 ft over the southwest Gulf. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade wind flow across the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area. Moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas are occurring elsewhere. Some thunderstorms from afternoon heating are noted over western Cuba and over Haiti. Most of the areas over water are free of precipitation except for the SW Caribbean, south of 14.5N and west of 76W, due to the combination of a tropical wave and the east Pacific monsoon trough in the area. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low is in the vicinity of 22N62W, while a north-south oriented surface trough is in the same area, along 60W from 19N to 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 20N-30N between 59W-66W. Mainly fair weather due to high pressure ridging prevails elsewhere across the Atlantic, north of 20N. The subtropical ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure near the Azores to 1021 mb high pressure just SW of Bermuda near 30N70W to central Florida to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and 3-4 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Mainly moderate trades and 5-6 ft seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 11N-20N. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are likely occurring near the Canary Islands and near the coast of Western Sahara, where seas are up to 7-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N through tonight, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours during mid to late week. $$ Hagen