000 AXNT20 KNHC 020923 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 20N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 10N to 12N between 25W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 10N between 45W and 47W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends from southeast Haiti to northeast Colombia, and moving is west around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara- Mauritania border across the Cabo Verde Islands to 10N30W. An ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 11N42W, then from 08N48W to the Guyana coast northwest of Georgetown. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 11N between 32W and 35W, and from 08N to 10N between 55W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds were evident in a recent scatterometer satellite pass over the southwest Gulf, along a trough noted just west of the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and near where a few showers and thunderstorms are active. Seas The satellite data also indicated moderate to fresh E winds across the Straits of Florida. Light breezes and slight seas are evident north of 25N, where a ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by 1019 mb high pressure area centered near 28N95W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the surface ridge will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf this week. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours through midweek due to a diurnal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ship observed recently fresh NE to E winds across the Windward Passage. This is on the northern edge of a tropical wave moving south of Haiti, and south of high pressure centered northeast of the northern Bahamas. Winds may be reaching 25 kt in the Windward Passage, and seas are likely 4 to 6 ft throughout the Windward Passage. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force winds funneling off Colombia just ahead of the tropical wave, where seas are likely 9 to 11 ft. Elsewhere fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean south of 18N and west of 70W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Observations from Roatan in the Bay Islands of Honduras show fresh E winds. The scatterometer pass also showed fresh NE to E winds in the lee of central Cuba. Elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate E winds are also noted over the eastern Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. Trade wind convergence is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms from off eastern Panama to the coast of southeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered near 30N68W through east-central Florida. Farther east, a surface trough is centered along 56W from 23N to 30N, associated with an upper low near 22N60W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are evident with 90 nm west of the trough from 27N to 29N. The ridge pattern is supporting light breezes north of 27N and east of 60W with 3 ft seas, gentle to moderate E winds from 22N to 27N east of 60W. Moderate to fresh E winds are evident south of 22N and west of 60W, with strong winds near the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas are 3 to 5 ft south of 27N. Between 35W and 60W, the pattern supports light to gentle winds north of 22N with 3 to 4 ft seas, and mainly moderate trade winds farther south into the tropical Atlantic with 4 to 6 ft seas in NE swell. Over the eastern Atlantic east of 35W, moderate NE winds are evident north of 15N and light to gentle breezes farther south, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Generally dry conditions persist over the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will prevail along 30N through tonight, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours during the mid to late week. $$ Christensen