000 AXNT20 KNHC 010909 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 11N to 13N and between 21W and 24W. The northern portion of the wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 08N between 38W and 43W. The northern portion of the wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W, south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. N significant convection is evident near the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W to 18N20W to 13N22W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N40W to 06N55W. Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery near the monsoon trough axis between 25W and 35W. Similar convection is also present from 07N to 09N and between 45W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 0230 UTC indicated moderate to fresh E winds over the Florida Straits, where seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft. These winds are being enhanced on the northern end of a tropical wave moving through the western Caribbean, and following a trough analyzed over the eastern Gulf, reaching northward toward Cedar Key, Florida. This trough is evidence the ridge that has been in place over the northern Gulf is weakening, resulting in mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas. A few showers and thunderstorms linger over the far southwest Gulf, ahead of a weak moving off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active in the Big Bend area of Florida in the northeast Gulf, on the northern end of the trough in that area. For the forecast, the winds over the Straits of Florida will diminish through the morning as the tropical wave farther south continues to move westward. Elsewhere, the weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh E winds will pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent ship and buoy observations along with a scatterometer satellite pass from 0230 UTC indicate a large area of fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong over the south- central Caribbean off Colombia, and south of Hispaniola. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft over this area. The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh to strong winds over the west-central Caribbean off the coasts of northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. The stronger winds are the result of a tightened pressure gradient between a pair of tropical waves moving across the basin and the subtropical ridge to the north of the area. Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident over the eastern Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted across the northwest Caribbean, except possibly fresh winds in the lee of Cuba, where a few showers and thunderstorms are evident. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along and just to the north of the ABC islands in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will diminish slightly after the tropical waves moved through the basin and the pressure gradient relaxes. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends along roughly 30N west of 60W, anchored by 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N70W. A scatterometer satellite pass from 0230 UTC confirmed fresh to strong E winds off the north coast of Hispaniola, reaching into the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are likely 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds are noted south of the ridge from 22N to 27N west of 60W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Light breezes are evident farther north along the ridge axis and eastward to 35W, with 2 to 4 ft. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along a stationary front reaches from 31N48W to 29N53W to 31N58W. Elsewhere between 35W and 60W, moderate trades and 4 to 6 ft seas south of the ridge, with NE swell. Saharan air is suppressing significant convection across the eastern and central Atlantic, except for clusters along the monsoon trough and ITCZ. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours through tonight. $$ Christensen