000 AXNT20 KNHC 302254 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 03N to 20N. No deep convection is noted as the wave continues to be embedded within in a dry and dusty Saharan air mass. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the wave from 05N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 05N to 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection trails trails this wave within 30 nm of a line from 14N55W to 12N50W to 11N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of 11N46W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the wave to 61W from 09N to 14N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 22N, moving westward at about 20 kt. A batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave from 14N to 18N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms trail the wave north of 15N. This activity is moving west-northwest. It is affecting the coastal waters of Puerto Rico and also the Mona Passage area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W southwestward to 13N26W to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 07N40W. No deep convection is noted due to the very dry surrounding environment mainly due to the Saharan Air Layer. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern Gulf, with lower pressure over southern Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from 23N98W to inland Mexico at 19N94W. This pattern is generating moderate east to southeast winds across the majority of the basin. An upper level-low over the south-central Gulf is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the basin southeast of a line from 30N87W to 27N92W to just inland Mexico at 24N98W. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of coastal waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low moving westward across the southern Gulf will continue to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Otherwise, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf Coast will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh east winds will pulse during the evening hours Sun and Mon evenings to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between the subtropical high and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly trade winds across the basin. In the eastern Caribbean winds are fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Caribbean winds are strong with mainly 6-8 ft seas and an area of 8-10 ft seas south of 14N, between 74W and 78W. In the northwestern Caribbean, winds are moderate along with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sun. The strong winds will expand in areal coverage Sun night through Mon following a tropical wave moving across the basin. Seas will build across the central Caribbean during that time. Winds and seas will diminish by mid- week. Meanwhile, the eastern Caribbean will experience fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate east winds into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A subtropical high pressure ridge extends along 30N in the western Atlantic. It extends east-northeastward to a 1026 mb high center located just north of the area near 33N37W. The associated gradient is maintaining generally gentle winds near and within the ridge. East winds increase to moderate speeds south of 27N. Seas are 3-4 ft north of 27N and 4-6 ft south of 27N. Moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate the eastern Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will change little through Tue, then shift slightly south Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours through Mon night. Fresh trade winds will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Sun night, before diminishing to moderate early next week. $$ Aguirre