000 AXNT20 KNHC 282329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 38W and S of 23N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 02N to 08.5N between 36W and 42W. A strong SAL outbreak dominates the north portion of the wave from 17N to 25N between 38W and 47W. Another tropical wave has its axis along 52W/53W and S of 21N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A surface trough is N of the wave and extends from 28N51W to 21N53W. Only isolated convection is noted at this time, likely due to the wave being embedded in a broad Saharan airmass. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W then continues to 07N25W to 10N36W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 08N51W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela near 09.5N61W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm south of the ITCZ. Scattered showers are elsewhere near both the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough extends to the border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean near the trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends across N Florida and across the N Gulf waters along 28N. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the W Gulf from 22N to 26.5N between 90W and 97W, supported by diffluent flow aloft. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate SE winds prevail based on a late morning scatterometer pass, with seas of 2-4 ft, except 4-5 ft in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the broad surface high pressure ridging will continue over the area allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough located west of the Lesser Antilles extends from 15N65W to 11N65W. This trough is producing scattered showers and a few tstorms south of 14N between 64W and 68W. Another surface trough is noted west of Jamaica, producing a few showers and tstorms in the Cayman Basin. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted in the NW Caribbean, with seas of 3-5 ft. The southwest, central, and eastern Caribbean are dominated by gentle to moderate trades and 5-7 ft seas. The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS and the GOES-16 RGB dust imagery continues to depict the presence of African dust across much of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the area through the rest of the week, except for pulsing fresh winds every evening over the waters N of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will develop across the central Caribbean this weekend. A surface trough in the eastern Caribbean near 65W south 16N will move westward across the rest of basin through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High centered north of the area near 38N30W and extends to N Florida. Strong to near gale force NE winds are noted across the E Atlantic waters between the Canary Islands and near the coasts of Western Sahara and Mauritania, with seas of 7-9 ft. The remainder of the discussion waters are experiencing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 4-7 ft west of 55W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge along 30N will change little through Mon night, then shift slightly south Tue and Tue night as a cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next week. $$ Stripling