000
AXNT20 KNHC 281005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 34W and S of 21N, moving W at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 03N to 11N 
between 28W and 42W. 

Another tropical wave has its axis along 49W and S of 21N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. A surface trough is N of the wave and extends 
from 28N48W to 23N49W. Shower activity is noted near the trough, 
while scattered showers are across the southern portion of the
wave mainly S of 08N. This wave is embedded in the dry and dusty 
Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting significant convection at 
this time. Computer model shows moisture associated with this 
tropical wave reaching the Leeward Islands by Fri.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea Bissau near 12N16W then continues to 07N41W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N41W to 07N47W, then resumes W of a tropical wave
near 07N50W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection described in the
Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted along the boundaries between 42W-54W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW
Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia, where a 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N between 76W-81W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf waters.  
SCattered moderate convection is observed over the Bay of
Campeche. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas of 2-4 ft based on a pair
of altimeter passes. Fresh easterly winds are noted per 
scatterometer data near and to the W of Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue over the area 
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail 
through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of 
Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each 
night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough 
that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS and the GOES-16
RGB dust imagery continues to depict the presence of African dust
across much of the basin. However, some convective activity is 
noted over Jamaica and adjacent waters, likely related to an 
upper-level low spinning just N of Hispaniola. Recent 
scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to locally 
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, while gentle 
winds prevail in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of eastern 
Cuba where fresh NE winds are noted. Seas are 3-5 ft across the 
basin, with the exception of 5-7 ft in the south-central 
Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate 
seas are expected across the area through the rest of the week, 
except for pulsing fresh winds every evening over the waters N of 
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will develop across the central 
Caribbean this weekend. A surface trough currently along 62W is 
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. The trough 
will move W across the basin through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High 
centered near 37N33W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow 
prevails over the forecast waters, per recent scatterometer data 
with seas of 4-6 ft based on altimeter data and buoy observations.
African dust reaches the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, and 
mostly fair weather is expected. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridge along 30N will 
change little through the next few days. Fresh winds will pulse N
of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in 
the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next
week. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
ERA