000 AXNT20 KNHC 280518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning E of 35W: Recent scatterometer data continue to show gale force winds in the AGADIR zone near the coast. Rough seas of 8-11 ft are within this area of winds. Strong to near gale force winds are also noted between the Canary Islands, with moderate or rough seas. Moderate visibility due to sand and hazy conditions. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 32W/33W and S of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04N to 11N between 30W and 35W. Another tropical wave has its axis along 47W/48W and S of 21N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A trough is N of the wave and extends from 27N47W to 22N48W. Some shower activity is near the trough while isolated showers are near the wave axis. This wave is embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting significant convection at this time. Computer model shows moisture associated with this tropical wave reaching the Leeward Islands on Fri. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 11.5N16W then continues to 09N32W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Convection is limited. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia, where a 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over northern Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over parts of Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf waters. A surface trough, reflexion of a low to middle level disturbance, is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and extends from 28N85W to 25N88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are associated with this trough. Similar convective activity is observed over the northern Yucatan peninsula and over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas of 2-4 ft based on a pair of altimeter passes. Fresh easterly winds are noted per scatterometer data near and to the W of Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, a ridge will continue over the area allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. The aforementioned surface trough will continue to enhance convection over the eastern Gulf today. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS and the GOES-16 RGB dust imagery confirm the presence of African dust across much of the Caribbean Sea. However, patches of low level moisture, with possible showers, are seen over much of the Lesser Antilles in association with a weak low level trough. Some convective activity is noted over Haiti, eastern Cuba and regional waters, and near eastern Jamaica likely related to an upper-level low spinning just N of Hispaniola. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to locally fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, while gentle winds prevail in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of eastern Cuba where fresh NE winds are noted. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, with the exception of 5-7 ft in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the Caribbean through the rest of the week, except briefly increasing to fresh to strong across the south-central Caribbean, and N of Honduras at night through Thu night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will develop across the central Caribbean by this weekend. The surface trough currently over the Windward Islands will move W across the eastern Caribbean through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Gale Warning E of 35W issued by Meteo-France. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High centered near 37N34W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails over the forecast waters, per recent scatterometer data with seas of 4-6 ft based on altimeter data and buoy observations. African dust reaches the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, and mostly fair weather is expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are affecting the SE Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands due to an upper-level low located just N of Hispaniola. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure along 30N will change little through the next few days. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next week. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ GR