000 AXNT20 KNHC 272330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the AGADIR zone, effective through 28/0000 UTC. N winds will gust to gale force mainly near the coast. Seas are 7-9 ft in N swell. Additionally, locally moderate visibility is possible due to sand haze. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W/32W and S of 27N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04.5N to 12N between 24W and 37W. Fresh NE to E winds are noted near the wave axis N of 20N per morning scatterometer data. A strong Saharan Air Layer dominates the area N of 14N and west of the wave axis to 42W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W and S of 23N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A trough axis continues from 23N to 27N along 45W-46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm behind the trough. This wave is embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting significant convection at this time. Fresh NE to E winds are noted N of 20N near the wave axis per morning scatterometer data. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 10.5N22W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N48W to 09.5N52W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms are noted near both boundaries. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of Panama and northwest Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends from near Bermuda southwestward into the northern Gulf waters, maintaining gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail. Strong convection is moving NW off of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and into the adjacent Gulf waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues across the NE Gulf waters, associated with a low to middle level disturbance shifting WNW. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridging will continue over the area allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. A surface trough extending from 29N85W to 26N90W will be attendant by scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong Saharan Air Layer, evident on several Upper Air Soundings across the Caribbean, continues to provide generally tranquil conditions across the Caribbean to the east of 83W. However, patches of low level moisture may support some showers tonight, especially as a weak low level trough moves across the Windward Islands tonight. Trades are moderate in the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle in the W Caribbean. Scatterometer indicated trades are locally fresh in the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft in the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean, except to 7 ft offshore of Colombia, diminishing to 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through the rest of the week, except briefly increasing to fresh to strong across the south central Caribbean and N of Honduras tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will develop across the central Caribbean by this weekend. A low-level trough just east of the Windward Islands is accompanied by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms and will cross those islands early this evening, and move into the far eastern Carribbean during overnight hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an East Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails over the discussion waters, per morning scatterometer data. Saharan Air and fair weather prevail W of 60W and have moved into the Florida Peninsula today. The exception in winds is near the aforementioned tropical waves, where winds are locally fresh. Also, near the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except locally 8-9 ft north of 20N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure along 30N will change little through the next few days. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next week. $$ Stripling