000 AXNT20 KNHC 260407 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0405 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced along 15W, south of 20N, based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram, potential vorticity and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N and E of 19W. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 20N, and moving W at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this tropical wave as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W, south of 21N, extending from eastern Cuba to Colombia and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring in northern Haiti and surrounding waters and NW Colombia, including in the offshore waters. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88-89W, south of 18N, extending from Belize, across Honduras and El Salvador into the East Pacific, and moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen on the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N23W to 14N29W to 09N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and E of 31W. A few showers are also present S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 02N and W of 38W. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. A few weak showers dot the waters near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting mainly light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf, except for 3-4 ft in the SE Gulf, especially from offshore northern Yucatan to the Florida Straits. A surface trough over the NW Bahamas is increasing the moisture in the SE Gulf and allowing the development of a few passing showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to the lee of Cuba and interacting with a mid-upper level trough in the NW Caribbean to produce a few showers, mainly N of 20N. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the central and NE Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore southern Hispaniola. Seas in the described waters are 4-7 ft. In the rest of the Caribbean, light to locally moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient in the central Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 28N77W to 20N79W, across the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. The interaction of this low-level trough with an upper level trough off NE Florida results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 73W. Fresh to strong easterly wids are found S of 26N and W of 65W, with the strongest winds occurring between northern Hispaniola and offshore Puerto Rico, including the entrances of the Mona and Windward Passages and the SE Bahamas. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere W of 55W, gentle to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge near the Azores, maintaining generally dry weather conditions. This is accentuated by a dry and dusty Saharan airmass that is traveling westward across the basin, suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds are noted from 12N to 28N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this region are 4-7 ft. Fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds are occurring N of 22N and E of 28W in the NE Atlantic due to the pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures in NW Africa. The strongest winds are found offshore Morocco and in the water passages in the Canary Islands, as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridge along 30N will shift slightly south on Wed, and change little through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the late afternoons and at nights north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Similar winds are expected in the Mona Passage tonight and Tue night. A surface trough that extends from 28N77W to central Cuba will continue moving west through mid week enhancing convection/winds/seas across the northern Bahamas and south Florida. $$ Delgado